Can We Do It? Thoughts on Europe’s Future Demand for Critical Mineral Raw Materials

A key objective of the European Critical Raw Materials Act is to reduce the European Union’s dependence on third countries for the supply of critical and strategic raw materials. The aim is to cover at least 10% of the EU’s own needs through mining production in EU member states by 2030. Studies by the European Union’s Joint Research Centre and published databases such as World Mining Data were used to determine future demand for critical raw materials and the possibility of self-sufficiency. These were used to derive scenarios for the demand for critical raw materials up to 2030. A sharp increase in demand for battery raw materials such as cobalt, lithium, and graphite is expected in strategic sectors and technologies. Based on the Joint Research Centre’s data on demand in key technologies for 2030, estimates have been made for the development of total demand for raw materials. Due to the still low share of key technologies compared to conventional demand sectors, total demand for copper and platinum will develop moderately if the share of these technologies does not increase significantly. For the battery raw materials cobalt and lithium, the share is already well over 20% and will dominate future total demand. Research on active European production sites and projects for cobalt, copper, and lithium provides an estimate of European mining production through 2030. A comparison with published data on European resources and reserves makes it possible to estimate whether the 10% target set in the Critical Raw Material Act for the materials examined is realistically achievable. In order to meet the objectives of the Act, EU member states must urgently develop effective strategies to rapidly increase domestic production of mineral raw materials. Although resources are available for many critical and strategic raw materials, the economically recoverable reserves are often unknown and there is little social acceptance and political support for domestic mining projects. Covering 10% of domestic demand with production from EU member states in 2030 therefore does not appear realistic for many critical raw materials at present.