Prognose des Ersatzteilbedarfs am Beispiel der Firma Pöttinger

This thesis is divided into three main parts. In the first part an analysis of the demand of spare parts is made. Methods used to analyze the demand pattern were the ABC analysis, XYZ analysis and the classification of spare parts by volume needed. In the second part, factors were identified, which influence the demand pattern of the spare parts. Due to the lack of data it wasn`t possible to take this factors into consideration for the comparison of the forecasting methods. The third part consists of the comparison of the quality of the selected forecasting methods (exponential smoothing, moving average, weighted moving average, Croston, etc.). The comparison of the forecasting methods was done for 157 spare parts based on the consumption of one warehouse in germany and the total consumption of spare parts of Alois Pöttinger Maschinenfabrik. The quality of the examined forecasting methods was not sufficient so the conclusion of this thesis is, that the demand of spare parts of Alois Pöttinger Maschinenfabrik cannot be forecast with the examined methods with sufficient quality.