Upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa: teorija, koncepti i metode [Disaster Risk Management: Theory, Concepts and Methods]

After six years since the publication of the first edition of the university textbook Risk Management in Emergency Situations (2020), it became clear that both the scientific discipline and the operational practice of risk management now exist within a significantly different and transformed security environment. Contemporary natural and technological risks have become increasingly complex, interdependent, and dynamic, while disasters more frequently assume a multi-hazard character and produce cascading effects that simultaneously affect critical infrastructure, public services, the economy, health, and safety. At the same time, new theoretical frameworks have been developed, numerous studies have been conducted, more precise assessment methods have been created, more advanced loss models and decision-support systems have been introduced, as well as digital platforms that enable faster collection, processing, and exchange of data throughout the risk management cycle. Therefore, the second, revised and expanded edition was prepared as a thorough revision of the manuscript, rather than as a mere update. The title of the book was also refined and now reads Disaster Risk Management — Theory, Concepts and Methods, thereby more clearly emphasizing its belonging to the field of disaster studies and the integration of theoretical foundations with instruments of analysis, assessment, and decision-making.

The textbook has been linguistically, conceptually, and structurally harmonized throughout, and a significant portion of the content has been revised and supplemented with new thematic units. The most extensive changes were made in the section dealing with methods, concepts, and models of risk management, where the body of risk assessment techniques has been expanded and systematized: from hazard identification methods, through cause-and-effect logical analyses (fault tree, event tree, bow-tie, barrier analysis, and root cause analysis), to quantitative and simulation approaches (Monte Carlo, Bayesian networks, Markov models, extreme value models, discrete events, and system dynamics), as well as scenario-based and consequence-based methods (stress tests, toxic cloud, fire and explosion analyses, domino effect, business impact, and continuity). The spatial aspect of risk analysis has been particularly improved through mapping, with a more developed presentation of the preparation of risk maps and risk registers, as well as the role of indicators and index models in comparative assessment. The chapter on disaster response has also been substantially revised and given a more operational structure and clearer flow of activities: from system activation and response criteria, through command and coordination with headquarters and operational centers and resource management, to the development of situational awareness and information management, implementation of field measures (warning, evacuation, search and rescue, first aid, stabilization of living conditions), public health and sanitary activities, management of secondary risks, and communication with the public, media, and volunteers. In addition, the theoretical frameworks and paradigms in disaster studies have been expanded, the phenomenology of hazards and disasters has been deepened through a clearer distinction between the characteristics of hazards and consequences, and a systematized block relating to disaster risk and risk perception has been introduced. The sections dealing with vulnerability and resilience have also been further improved, including assessment methods and indicators, as well as the parts devoted to risk reduction, international cooperation, legal frameworks, and the role of information and communication technologies and digital platforms in prevention, preparedness, and response.

This edition has been enhanced and grounded in my scientific research work to date, including more than 350 published scientific papers and conducted empirical studies in the field of disaster risk management. The content has also been further adapted to the teaching I conduct at the Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, as well as within my academic engagement at the Technical University of Leoben in Austria, with the intention that the textbook remain at the same time scientifically grounded, methodologically precise, and pedagogically useful in different teaching and professional contexts. In the meantime, the textbook has been translated into two world languages, English and German, which further confirms its relevance and usability in a broader academic and professional context. In the final stage of manuscript preparation, alongside traditional editing, tools based on artificial intelligence were also used as support in stylistic harmonization, linguistic refinement, and technical editing of the text; responsibility for the scientific content, interpretations, and conclusions remains entirely with the author. Finally, I express my special and sincere gratitude to the reviewers Prof. Dr. Vladimir Jakovljević, Prof. Dr. Jasmina Gačić, Prof. Dr. Neda Nikolić, and Prof. Dr. Hatidža Beriša. Their careful review analysis, clearly articulated remarks and suggestions, as well as their balanced recommendations for more precise conceptual distinctions, more logical structuring of individual sections, and strengthening of methodological consistency, significantly contributed to the final form of the manuscript. I particularly appreciate their dedication in reading the complex sections relating to risk assessment, the operationalization of the management process, as well as issues of preparedness, response, and recovery, because it was precisely in these segments that their comments helped make the text clearer, more transparent, and more applicable in teaching and practice. Finally, I thank my family, my wife Vanja, my son Damjan, and my mother Slavica, for their understanding, patience, and selfless support during the work on this edition, as well as the Lord God, who guided and strengthened me in the most difficult moments.